Yo, como otros tantos, me he convertido en “sanitaria frente al COVID”. Lo cierto es que me siento afortunada en relación con otros compañeros: soy joven, no me han cambiado de unidad ni de hospital al empezar la reorganización en la pandemia, conocía la UCI y a los compañeros, sabía (desde mi corta experiencia) cómo trabajar, cómo funcionaba el equipo, cómo eran los pacientes de UCI, las medicaciones, los respiradores… La capacitación en EPI (Equipo de Protección Individual) la hice con al menos una semana de antelación al primer caso que traté. Esto parecería lo mínimo a cumplir para trabajar bien, disminuir los riesgos hacia el paciente y hacia nosotros mismos, pero en realidad duró esa semana y actualmente algo así sería un regalo. Todo esto me hace sentir en una situación privilegiada y soy consciente de ello, pero espero, con estas pocas líneas, poder dar voz a muchos de mis compañeros y sus bien distintas situaciones.
Belén Gopegui (Madrid, 1963) Licenciada en Derecho en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Novelista y guionista española. Con su ópera prima La escala de los mapas, (1993) recibió varios premios y su tercera obra, La conquista del aire, fue adaptada al cine. Belén Gopegui fue descrita como la mejor de su generación por el escritor […]
Cristian Morales, an economist by training, has dedicated his career to improving health and health equity in the Americas through his work with PAHO/WHO. This has taken him from hurricanes, earthquakes and epidemics in Haiti to PAHO’s Washington DC offices, where he was instrumental in achieving consensus on a resolution aiming for universal health—coverage plus […]
Science journalism was little known in Cuba when Iramis Alonso wrote her thesis on the specialized field in 1990. That year, journalism degree from the University of Havana in hand, she set off to Cuba’s eastern countryside to complete two years of social service reporting for local, regional and national print media. Living in the […]
INTRODUCTION On March 11, 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic and called on governments to impose drastic measures to fight it. It is vitally important for government health authorities and leaders to have reliable estimates of infected cases and deaths in order to apply the necessary measures with the resources at their disposal.
OBJECTIVE Test the validity of the logistic regression and Gompertz curve to forecast peaks of confirmed cases and deaths in Cuba, as well as total number of cases.
METHODS An inferential, predictive study was conducted using logistic and Gompertz growth curves, adjusted with the least squares method and informatics tools for analysis and prediction of growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Italy and Spain—countries that have passed the initial peak of infection rates—were studied, and it was inferred from the results of these countries that their models were applicable to Cuba. This hypothesis was tested by applying goodness-of-fit and significance tests on its parameters.
RESULTS Both models showed good fit, low mean square errors, and all parameters were highly significant.
CONCLUSIONS The validity of models was confirmed based on logistic regression and the Gompertz curve to forecast the dates of peak infections and deaths, as well as total number of cases in Cuba.
KEYWORDS COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, logistic models, pandemic, mortality, Cuba
The emerging SARS-CoV-2, a novel human coronavirus, caused the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 9.5 million cases and 484 000 known fatalities to date (June 24th, 2020). In several regions, healthcare systems have collapsed whereas interventions applied to slow the viral spreading have had major social and economic impacts. After China, Europe, and the United States, Latin America has emerged as the new epicenter of the pandemic. By late-June, the region accounted for roughly 50% of global daily deaths (Gardner, 2020). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region has been heterogenous as several countries are currently experiencing exponential growth of their daily cases and fatalities, while others have successfully controlled their corresponding outbreaks. Cuba confirmed its first COVID-19 cases in mid-March. After a three-month outbreak, the country recently began to move to a postepidemic phase. This dispatch details some relevant aspects of the strategy deployed in Cuba to face the COVID-19 pandemic and to decrease the impact of this emerging disease in the country. In addition, it describes the evolution of some epidemiological variables which allowed the country to de-escalate some of the non-pharmaceutical interventions applied during the outbreak.
Dr Héctor Javier Sánchez specializes in public health and research methodology and holds a master’s degree in epidemiology. He is a senior researcher in the Society, Culture and Health Department at El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Mexico. The Colegio is a public research institution concentrating on environmental, economic and social issues related to a […]
Dr Armando De Negri Filho is an epidemiologist whose work has centered on development and maintenance of Brazil’s universal healthcare system. Along with his training in epidemiology, Dr De Negri has a specialty in emergency medicine and a PhD involving research focused on policy, planning, economics and health systems management. In addition to his other […]
Speaking remotely with US graduates of Havana’s Latin American School of Medicine (ELAM), I found them at work on hospital floors, in ICUs and health centers across the United States, putting their professional and personal commitment to the test against COVID-19. Nowhere was that more evident than in New York City, the disease’s epicenter, where […]
Dr José Ramón Acosta-Sariego is full professor of basic and preclinical sciences at the Medical University of Havana’s Victoria de Girón Institute, where he also chairs the Scientific Research Ethics Committee. He serves as vice-chair of the Board of Directors of UNESCO’s Latin American and Caribbean Bioethics Network (REDBioética) and in 2020, UNESCO’s Director-General appointed […]
Meningitis, neuropathy, HIV, dengue—since the 1960s, Cuba has faced its share of epidemics. More recently, Cuban health professionals tackled domestic outbreaks of H1N1 (2009) and Zika (2016), and worked alongside colleagues from around the world to stem Ebola in West Africa; all three were categorized by WHO as public health emergencies of international concern. In […]
This MEDICC Review roundtable brings you specialists from Havana’s Pedro Kourí Tropical Medicine Institute (IPK), who are working directly with testing, research and patient care during the COVID-19 pandemic. Founded in 1937 by its namesake, the Institute has gained considerable worldwide prestige. Today, it is a PAHO–WHO Collaborating Center for the Study of Dengue and Its Vector, and for the Elimination of Tuberculosis. Its main role within Cuba’s health system is as the national reference center for prevention, control, management and elimination of infectious diseases, including epidemics. Its 479 workers staff 32 departments, including laboratories, research and teaching facilities, a hospital and isolation center. The IPK’s hospital treats later-stage AIDS patients, while the Institute is the national reference center for attention to all HIV-positive patients and maintains the national HIV/AIDS registry, as well as registries for other infectious diseases. The institution was responsible for training the Cuban doctors who served in West Africa during the 2014–2016 Ebola outbreaks and for those going abroad to assist in the COVID-19 response today, and its professionals offer an internationally-recognized biennial course on dengue.
Introducing our readers to roundtable participants (in order of appearance):
Manuel Romero-Placeres MD MPH PhD is a physician with dual specialties in family medicine and epidemiology, as well as a degree in public administration and a doctorate in medical sciences. He also holds a master’s degree in public health, concentrating on environmental health. He is full professor and senior researcher at the Medical University of Havana, and is a member of the Cuban Academy of Sciences. Dr Romero is director of the Pedro Kourí Tropical Medicine Institute (IPK).
Daniel González-Rubio MD MS PhD is an internist with a master’s degree in infectology and tropical diseases, and a doctorate in medical sciences. He is full professor and associate researcher at the Medical University of Havana and chief of the Tropical Medicine Unit at IPK.
Sonia Resik-Aguirre MD MS PhD is a physician specializing in microbiology with a master’s degree in virology and a doctorate in medical sciences. She is full professor and senior researcher at the Medical University of Havana. Dr Resik heads the Virology Department and directs the National Polio Reference Laboratory at IPK. She has participated in numerous international collaborations, including 12 with WHO on inactivated polio vaccine. She is a member of WHO’s SAGE Polio Working Group.
The days are long and arduous, with endless patients to attend, often in a foreign language, always on foreign shores. Far from family and the familiar. Sleep is fitful at best for health professionals serving in emergency situations—when sickness obeys no clock and patients’ pain haunts even the quiet moments. The crisis scenario varies: post-earthquake, […]
Following identification of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, Cuba activated its National Action Plan for Epidemics and convened a National Intersectoral Commission to design measures to protect population health. Following approval of the COVID-19 Prevention and Control Plan, scores of measures were implemented to fight the pandemic. Internationally and in Cuba, these are organized according to […]
A strong foundation of primary care is critical to the health system and is particularly important during pandemics like COVID-19. Primary care practices should be a natural fit for triaging, testing, treating, and educating patients. —Corinne Lewis, Shanoor Seervai, Tanya Shah,Melinda K. Abrams, and Laurie Zephyrin MDThe Commonwealth Fund, April 22, 2020[1] This thoughtful observation […]
Dr Pastor Castell-Florit’s career in public health spans work at local, national and international levels. In 2016, he received PAHO’s Award for Health Administration in the Americas, for “outstanding leadership and valuable contributions to the management and administration of the Cuban National Health System.” He serves as president of Cuba’s National Council of Scientific […]
