INTRODUCTION With 333 million cases worldwide predicted for 2015, type 2 diabetes mellitus presents an important global health challenge. Its rising tide calls for health policies emphasizing prevention at the primary care level, including public education as well as early risk identification and intervention.

OBJECTIVES Estimate risk of developing type 2 diabetes in persons with no known glucose abnormalities, registered in a primary care setting in Pinar del Río city, Cuba, using FINDRISK.

METHODS A descriptive, cross-sectional study applied FINDRISK to 620 persons aged ≥18 years randomly selected from a universe of 1058 patients with no known glucose abnormalities, registered in family-doctor-and-nurse office No. 23 in the Turcios Lima Teaching Polyclinic health area, Pinar del Río city.

RESULTS The study population was predominantly aged ≤45 years (53.5%) and 80.2% was overweight or obese. At least moderate risk of diabetes was found in 74.4% of the sample, and 10.5% was at very high risk, meaning an estimated 120 patients in the sample could be expected to develop type 2 diabetes within the next 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS Type 2 diabetes prevalence can be expected to increase substantially in this population over the next decade. We recommend design and timely implementation of intensive lifestyle change programs to eliminate or slow development of type 2 diabetes in at-risk individuals. We propose following cohorts identified by FINDRISK to assess its prognostic value in the Cuban population.

KEYWORDS Diabetes mellitus, risk factors, risk prediction, prevention, Cuba