INTRODUCTION Hypertension is one of the most studied risk factors for cardiovascular disease in adults; in children and adolescents, its global prevalence changes with age, from 1%–3% in children to 3.2% in adolescents. In adults, in addition to hypertension, several biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk have been identified. Confirming an association between these and hypertension in childhood and adolescence would allow for more timely diagnosis and monitoring of cardiovascular disease, since the presence of both the markers and hypertension would imply increased risk.
OBJECTIVE Confirm an association between biochemical risk markers of cardiovascular disease and hypertension in children aged 8 to 11 years.
METHODS A cross-sectional study of 373 children aged 8–11 years was conducted in 3 primary schools in the city of Santa Clara in central Cuba. The variables examined were age, sex, height, blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoproteins and apolipoproteins. The children were classified as normotensive, prehypertensive or hypertensive, based on blood pressure readings and percentiles for age, sex and height. Descriptive statistics were calculated for quantitative variables. A bivariate analysis, tests of independence for qualitative variables and a means comparison for quantitative variables (ANOVA and its nonparametric alternative, the Kruskal Wallis test) were performed. Fisher’s F-test and its associated probability value were employed.
RESULTS Some 32.2% of the children were prehypertensive and 5.1% hypertensive. Cholesterol and triglyceride values were significantly higher in hypertensive than in normotensive children (p = 0.028 and p = 0.047, respectively). HDL numbers were higher in normotensive children (p =0.001), and LDL numbers and the LDL/HDL ratio were higher in the hypertensive children, with differences between groups (p = 0.001 for both variables). There were differences between the three blood pressure categories for lipoprotein(a) and ApoA (p <0.001 and p = 0.001), for ApoB and for the ApoB/ApoA ratio (p <0.001 for both variables), with lower ApoA values and higher ApoB and ApoB/ApoA values in the hypertensive children.
CONCLUSIONS The biochemical risk markers most strongly associated with hypertension in children are ApoB values, LDL, lipoprotein(a), and LDL/HDL and ApoB/ApoA ratios.
KEYWORDS Adolescent, child, hypertension, apolipoproteins, cardiovascular diseases, risk factors, Cuba
INTRODUCTION Chronic kidney disease has reached epidemic levels in several Central American countries since the early years of this century. In El Salvador, it is the second cause of death in men, the fifth in persons over 18 years old and the third cause of hospital deaths in the adult population. Its features, especially those of a subtype unassociated with traditional risk factors such as diabetes and high blood pressure, are only partially understood.
OBJECTIVE Estimate the magnitude of chronic kidney disease in the adult population of El Salvador, considering both prevalence of the disease in its diverse forms as well as presence of potential risk factors nationally and in major subpopulations.
METHODS A descriptive, cross-sectional analysis was conducted on data obtained from the Survey of Chronic Non-communicable Diseases in Adults in El Salvador, completed in 2015. The original data (interviews and measurements) were collected between October 2014 and March 2015 from 4817 adults employing a two-stage probabilistic cluster sample, with stratification of primary sampling units. Our analysis, using 20 of the 118 primary variables included in the original survey, focused on point estimation of prevalence rates and means, related to both traditional biological risk factors and nontraditional ones, such as insufficient hydration, strenuous working conditions and exposure to toxic agents. A separate analysis was performed to estimate prevalence of chronic kidney disease from nontraditional causes. Corresponding confidence intervals were calculated with proper weighting.
RESULTS The general prevalence of chronic kidney disease in El Salvador was 12.8% (men 18.0%; women 8.7%). Of the chronically ill kidney patients, 13.1% were between 20 and 40 years of age. Among biological risk factors, the most frequent was high blood pressure (37.0%). Among nontraditional risk factors, high levels of sugary drink consumption (81.0%), insufficient hydration (65.9%) and high levels of exposure to agrochemicals in the work environment (12.6%) were also observed. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease from nontraditional causes was 3.9% (men 6.1%; women 2.2%).
CONCLUSIONS Chronic kidney disease has reached epidemic proportions in El Salvador. The data confirm a health tragedy that, although especially striking older men, also takes a severe toll on young men and women. The results confirm findings of previous research in several Salvadoran agricultural communities. The relatively high level of population exposure to agrochemicals is important and alarming, especially in rural areas, meriting health-impact studies that include and go beyond possible impact on chronic kidney disease.
KEYWORDS Kidney, renal insufficiency, chronic, risk factors, epidemics, El Salvador
INTRODUCTION Primary hypertension has its origins in childhood and is a risk factor for atherosclerosis; it is considered an important health problem because of its high prevalence worldwide.
OBJECTIVE Describe the development of hypertension during adolescence, including some factors that influence its persistence and progression in Cuban adolescents.
METHODS A cohort study was conducted in an intentional sample of 252 apparently healthy adolescents from the catchment area of the Héroes del Moncada Polyclinic in Plaza de la Revolución Municipality, Havana. They were assessed in two cross-sectional studies in 2004 and 2008. Mean age at first assessment was 13.2 years, 17.1 years at the second. Variables were weight, height, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, smoking, family history of hypertension and birth weight. Correlation coefficients and growth curve analyses were applied to assess blood pressure persistence. Risk of developing prehypertension and hypertension was estimated in the second assessment, based on predictors identified in the 2004 cut. Forecasting models with these factors were developed using classification trees as analytical tools.
RESULTS Of the six adolescents categorized as hypertensive in the first assessment, five still showed blood pressure alterations after four years. The main factors related to hypertension in those aged 16–19 were blood pressure itself and a body mass index >90th percentile, followed by low birth weight and abdominal obesity. Prognostic models for predicting this condition at the end of adolescence demonstrated the importance of blood pressure alterations at age 12–15 years.
CONCLUSIONS High rates of persistence and progression of hypertension during adolescence highlights the need for systematic blood pressure screening at the primary health care level and adoption of primary prevention strategies beginning in childhood.
KEYWORDS Atherosclerosis, atherogenesis, high blood pressure, adolescence, hypertension, risk factors, Cuba
INTRODUCTION Systematic measurement of population physical activity levels is an important component of public health surveillance.
OBJECTIVES Describe patterns of physical activity in the Cuban population aged 15–69 years and identify factors associated with regular physical activity.
METHODS A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted using a complex sampling design, representative of urban and rural areas, sex and age groups, including 7915 individuals. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire (short format) was applied. The population was classified as active, irregularly active and sedentary, according to sex, age, marital status, education, skin color, employment and perception of health risk related to physical inactivity or overweight. Percentages, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated and a multinomial regression model was fitted with active persons as the reference category.
RESULTS Approximately 71% of the population self-classified as active, 23% as sedentary and 5.9% as irregularly active. Women had a higher probability of being sedentary (OR 2.51, CI 2.12–2.98) and irregularly active (OR 2.56, CI 95% 1.87–3.49). The probability of being sedentary increased with age (OR 1.19, CI 1.12–1.26), and also with the condition of being a homemaker, retired, or unemployed. Perceiving overweight as a high risk to health reduced likelihood of inactivity (OR 0.49, CI 0.29–0.83).
CONCLUSIONS Some 7 of 10 Cubans are physically active. The groups with the highest probability of inactivity and irregular activity and associated factors have been identified through national application (for the first time) of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The results should be taken into account for implementation of specialized strategies to promote systematic physical activity.
KEYWORDS Physical activity, physical exercise, sedentary lifestyle, health behavior, risk factors, chronic disease, women’s health, surveillance, Cuba
INTRODUCTION Urinary incontinence is a disorder of considerable significance in older adults. It causes distress and morbidity, yet its true prevalence in the community is likely underestimated, because stigma and other factors may cause underreporting. WHO has developed a 10-minute screening tool to help primary healthcare providers recognize and manage the most common geriatric conditions: falls, memory loss, depression and urinary incontinence.
OBJECTIVE Determine prevalence of urinary incontinence in adults aged ≥60 years in Westmoreland Parish, Jamaica; examine some of the associated risk factors; estimate how much urinary incontinence goes unreported and explore related barriers.
METHODS A cross-sectional study in April 2014 of 454 older adults was conducted in 12 community clusters in Westmoreland. Data collection was done using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 17. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used to assess significance of associations between dependent and independent variables.
RESULTS The majority (241/454, 53.1%) of respondents were men aged 60–95 years (median age 69 years; interquartile range: 64–77). Prevalence of urinary incontinence was 10.6% (48/453). Statistically significant associations were found between urinary incontinence and hypertension, diabetes mellitus, prostate problems and arthritis, but not with kidney problems, stroke or parity. Among respondents with urinary incontinence, 30.2% had not reported the condition to their doctor (13/43 who answered this question). Reasons cited for nonreporting included belief that urinary incontinence is normal with aging (9 respondents), not being bothered by urinary incontinence (7), inability to pay for treatment (6), feeling ashamed to report the condition (4), not knowing the appropriate doctor to see (2) and lack of awareness of available treatment options (1). Among respondents who had unreported urinary incontinence, 10 indicated a preference for physician-initiated (as opposed to self-initiated) discussion of urinary incontinence.
CONCLUSION The substantial prevalence of urinary incontinence and high rate of nonreporting (almost one in three) underscore the need for systematic screening of older adults by doctors, especially at the primary care level, for early detection and appropriate urinary incontinence management.
KEYWORDS Urinary incontinence, prevalence, risk factors, cross-sectional studies, aged, elderly, Jamaica
INTRODUCTION High prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its associated risk factors in adults represents both a Cuban and a worldwide public health problem.
OBJECTIVE Determine prevalence of metabolic syndrome’s component risk factors in a representative sample of adults in Holguín Province, Cuba.
METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted using multistage probability sampling of four Holguín Province municipalities: Holguín, Gibara, Urbano Noris and Banes. We selected a sample of 2085 patients aged ≥20 years during 2004–2013 and measured clinical, anthropometric and biochemical variables. Risk factor prevalence rates were calculated using EPIDAT 3.1.
RESULTS Crude metabolic syndrome prevalence rate was 27.2% (CI 25.3%–29.1%). Crude prevalence rates (with 95% CI) of risk factors were as follows: hypertriglyceridemia 36.1% (34.0%–38.2%); hypercholesterolemia 25.5% (23.6%–27.4%); low HDL cholesterol 26.3% (24.4%–28.2%); high LDL cholesterol 10.1% (8.8%–11.4%); prediabetes 2.2% (1.6%–2.8%); diabetes 14.6% (13.1%–16.1%); prehypertension 3.5% (2.7%–4.3%); hypertension 34.5% (32.5%–36.5%); overweight 23.4% (21.6%–25.2%); obesity 32.0% (30.0%–34.0%) and central obesity 47.3% (45.2%–49.4%). They were significantly higher in women and older adults.
CONCLUSIONS High prevalence of risk factors associated with metabolic syndrome confirms the magnitude of this health problem, particularly in women and older adults.
KEYWORDS Metabolic syndrome, insulin resistance, hypertension, dyslipidemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity, risk factors, Cuba
INTRODUCTION Atherosclerosis is the common underlying cause of cardiovascular diseases; the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. It is a major contributor to disability and poorer quality of life and is costly to health systems, individuals, families and society. Early signs of atherogenesis are manifestations of atherosclerosis and known atherogenic risk factors occurring at young ages and detectable by health professionals. Early detection of such signs in children and adolescents enables actions to prevent short- and long-term complications.
OBJECTIVE Detect early signs of atherogenesis in adolescents in Family Doctor-and-Nurse Office No. 13 of the Raúl Gómez García Polyclinic in Havana’s 10 de Octubre Municipality.
METHODS An observational, cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted: the universe consisted of 110 adolescents and, once exclusion criteria were applied, the sample was made up of 96 adolescents in the office’s geographical catchment area. Variables included sociodemographic data; measurements from physical and anthropometric examinations (weight, height, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, presence of acanthosis nigricans); maternal history of diabetes mellitus and hypertension, smoking during pregnancy; birth weight and duration of exclusive breastfeeding; lifestyle (physical activity, dietary habits by frequency of consumption of fruits and vegetables, salt intake, and smoking); and a history of atherogenic risk factors and atherosclerotic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease and chronic kidney disease) in adolescents and their families. The number of early signs of atherogenesis was determined. Descriptive statistics and a chi-square test, with significance threshold set at p = 0.05, were used to examine differences by sex and age.
RESULTS A total of 62.5% of participating adolescents were female and the same percent of the total were in early adolescence. Prevalent risk factors were poor dietary habits (81.3%), passive smoking (54.2%) and sedentary lifestyle (45.8%). The latter was more frequent among female and adolescents aged 10–14 years. Prehypertension and active smoking were prevalent during late adolescence. Hypertension was the disease most often found in family history (91.7%). All adolescents had at least one early sign of atherogenesis, and 72.9% had ≥3 signs, noted especially in female participants.
CONCLUSIONS The high prevalence of ≥3 early signs of atherogenesis in this study suggests the need to initiate primary prevention before onset of adolescence, and even prior to birth, using a gender perspective, to conduct educational interventions designed to change the risk factors highlighted in the study and reduce cardiovascular risk in adolescents.
KEYWORDS Adolescents, adolescent health, atherosclerosis, atherogenesis, arterial occlusive diseases, early detection of disease, risk factors, Cuba
INTRODUCTION Fetal macrosomia is the most important complication in infants of women with diabetes, whether preconceptional or gestational. Its occurrence is related to certain maternal and fetal conditions and negatively affects maternal and perinatal outcomes. The definitive diagnosis is made at birth if a newborn weighs >4000 g.
OBJECTIVE Identify which maternal and fetal conditions could be macrosomia predictors in infants born to Cuban mothers with gestational diabetes.
METHODS A case-control study comprising 236 women with gestational diabetes who bore live infants (118 with macrosomia and 118 without) was conducted in the América Arias University Maternity Hospital, Havana, Cuba, during 2002–2012. The dependent variable was macrosomia (birth weight >4000 g). Independent maternal variables included body mass index at pregnancy onset, overweight or obesity at pregnancy onset, gestational age at diabetes diagnosis, pregnancy weight gain, glycemic control, triglycerides and cholesterol. Fetal variables examined included third-semester fetal abdominal circumference, estimated fetal weight at ≥28 weeks (absolute and percentilized by Campbell and Wilkin, and Usher and McLean curves). Chi square was used to compare continuous variables (proportions) and the student t test (X ± SD) for categorical variables, with significance threshold set at p <0.05. ORs and their 95% CIs were calculated.
RESULTS Significant differences between cases and controls were found in most variables studied, with the exception of late gestational diabetes diagnosis, total fasting cholesterol and hypercholesterolemia. The highest OR for macrosomia were for maternal hypertriglyceridemia (OR 4.80, CI 2.34–9.84), third-trimester fetal abdominal circumference >75th percentile (OR 7.54, CI 4.04–14.06), and estimated fetal weight >90th percentile by Campbell and Wilkin curves (OR 4.75, CI 1.42–15.84) and by Usher and McLean curves (OR 8.81, CI 4.25–18.26).
CONCLUSIONS Most variables assessed were predictors of macrosomia in infants of mothers with gestational diabetes. They should therefore be taken into account for future studies and for patient management. Wide confidence intervals indicate uncertainty about the magnitude of predictive power.
KEYWORDS Fetal macrosomia, fetal diseases, gestational diabetes, risk factors, risk prediction, Cuba
INTRODUCTION EKG remains a highly valuable tool for heart disease management. Corrected QT interval dispersion is a useful EKG parameter to assess prognosis in ischemic heart disease and specifically acute coronary syndrome. Understanding QT interval physiopathology helps assess importance of QT measurement in this context. Although increased QT dispersion is an ominous prognostic marker, its utility has not been evaluated for all types of acute coronary syndrome, even though in many circumstances it is the only tool available for diagnosing patients with equivocal EKG signs and/or atypical symptoms.
OBJECTIVE Describe corrected QT interval dispersion in acute coronary syndrome in three groups of patients—with ST elevation, without ST elevation, and without ST elevation with equivocal EKG signs—admitted to the intensive care unit of Celestino Hernández Robau University Hospital in Santa Clara, Cuba, from January 2010 through June 2011.
METHODS A descriptive retrospective study was conducted in 194 patients admitted with diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome. QT interval was measured and its dispersion calculated for the first EKG after symptom onset. Patterns were assessed for typical and atypical clinical presentations, and unequivocal and equivocal EKG signs.
RESULTS Nonclassifiable acute coronary syndrome was found in 6.7% of patients (13/194), the majority of whom had increased QT dispersion (76.9%, 10/13). There were significant differences in QT dispersion patterns between patients with typical and atypical presentations and between patients with equivocal and unequivocal EKG findings. In non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome and nonclassifiable acute coronary syndrome with increased dispersion, atypical presentation was the most common (65.5%, 19/29; and 90%, 9/10, respectively).
CONCLUSION Corrected QT interval dispersion is a useful diagnostic tool for acute coronary syndrome, especially when patients present with atypical symptoms and equivocal EKG findings. Thus, it is a low-cost alternative in management of acute coronary syndrome in resource-poor settings.
KEYWORDS Risk factors, ischemic heart disease, acute coronary syndrome, myocardial ischemia, electrocardiography, QT interval dispersion, prognosis, Cuba
INTRODUCTION This manuscript updates a review previously published in a local journal in 2012, about a new form of chronic kidney disease that has emerged over the past two decades in the north-central dry zone of Sri Lanka, where the underlying causes remain undetermined. Disease burden is higher in this area, particularly North Central Province, and affects a rural and disadvantaged population involved in rice-paddy farming. Over the last decade several studies have been carried out to estimate prevalence and identify determinants of this chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology.
OBJECTIVE Summarize the available evidence on prevalence, clinical profile and risk factors of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology in the north-central region of Sri Lanka.
METHODS PubMed search located 16 manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals. Three peer-reviewed abstracts of presentations at national scientific conferences were also included in the review.
RESULTS Disease prevalence was 5.1%–16.9% with more severe disease seen in men than in women. Patients with mild to moderate stages of disease were asymptomatic or had nonspecific symptoms; urinary sediments were bland; 24-hour urine protein excretion was <1 g; and ultrasound demonstrated bilateral small kidneys. Interstitial fibrosis was the main pathological feature on renal biopsy. The possibility of environmental toxins affecting vulnerable population groups in a specific geographic area was considered in evaluating etiological factors. Pesticide residues were detected in affected patients’ urine, and mycotoxins detected in foods were below maximum statutory limits. Calcium-bicarbonate–type water with high levels of fluoride was predominant in endemic regions. Significantly high levels of cadmium in urine of cases compared to controls, as well as the disease’s dose-related response to these levels, has drawn attention to this element as a possible contributing factor. Familial clustering of patients is suggestive of a polygenic inheritance pattern comparable to that associated with diseases of multifactorial etiology.
CONCLUSIONS Available data suggest that chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology is an environmentally acquired disease, but to date no definitive causal factor has been identified. Geographic distribution and research findings suggest a multifactorial etiology.
KEYWORDS Chronic kidney disease, uncertain etiology, prevalence, clinical profile, risk factors, rural communities, paddy farming, environmentally acquired disease, Sri Lanka
In recent years, Central America, Egypt, India and Sri Lanka have reported a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology in agricultural communities, predominantly among male farmworkers. This essay examines the disease’s case definitions, epidemiology (disease burden, demographics, associated risk factors) and causal hypotheses, by reviewing published findings from El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Sri Lanka, Egypt and India. The range of confirmed chronic kidney disease prevalence was 17.9%–21.1%. Prevalence of reduced glomerular filtration (<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 body surface area) based on a single serum creatinine measurement was 0%–67% men and 0%–57% women. Prevalence was generally higher in male farmworkers aged 20–50 years, and varied by community economic activity and altitude. Cause was unknown in 57.4%–66.7% of patients. The dominant histopathological diagnosis was chronic tubulointerstitial nephritis. Associations were reported with agricultural work, agrochemical exposure, dehydration, hypertension, homemade alcohol use and family history of chronic kidney disease. There is no strong evidence for a single cause, and multiple environmental, occupational and social factors are probably involved. Further etiological research is needed, plus interventions to reduce preventable risk factors.
KEYWORDS: Chronic kidney disease, prevalence, risk factors
INTRODUCTION Population aging translates into more people with chronic non-communicable diseases, disability, frailty and dependency. The study of frailty—a clinical syndrome associated with an increased risk of falls, disability, hospitalization, institutionalization and death—is important to improve clinical practice and population health indicators. OBJECTIVES In a cohort of older adults in Havana and Matanzas provinces, Cuba, estimate prevalence of frailty and its risk factors; determine incidence of dependency; estimate mortality risk and identify mortality predictors. METHODS A prospective longitudinal study was conducted door to door, from June 2003 through July 2011, in a cohort of 2813 adults aged ≥65 years living in selected municipalities of Havana and Matanzas provinces; mean followup time was 4.1 years. Independent variables included demographics, behavioral risk factors and socioeconomic indicators, chronic non-communicable diseases (hypertension, stroke, dementia, depression, diabetes, anemia), number of comorbidities, and APOE ε4 genotype. Dependent variables were frailty, dependency and mortality. Criteria for frailty were slow walking speed, exhaustion, weight loss, low physical activity and cognitive decline. Prevalence and frailty risk were estimated by Poisson regression, while dependency and mortality risks and their predictors were determined using Cox regression. RESULTS Frailty syndrome prevalence was 21.6% (CI 17.9%–23.8%) at baseline; it was positively associated with advanced age, anemia and presence of comorbidities (stroke, dementia, depression, three or more physically debilitating diseases). Male sex, higher educational level, married or partnered status, and more household amenities were inversely associated with frailty prevalence. In followup, dependency incidence was 33.1 per 1000 person-years (CI 29.1–37.6) and mortality was 55.1 per 1000 person-years. Advanced age, male sex, lower occupational status during productive years, dependency, frailty, dementia, depression, cerebrovascular disease and diabetes were all associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS Given the challenge for developing countries presented by demographic and epidemiologic transition; the high prevalence in older adults of frailty syndrome, dependency and chronic non-communicable diseases; and the association of all these with higher mortality, attention should be targeted to older adults as a risk group. This should include greater social protection, age-appropriate health services, and modification and control of cardiovascular risk factors.
KEYWORDS Frail elderly, frail older adults, aged, elderly, dependency, mortality, chronic disease, dementia, Alzheimer disease, risk factors, Cuba
The following error has been corrected in all online versions of this article.
Page 24, Introduction, first paragraph, line 2, “600,000 to 2 billion” should read “600 million to 2 billion.”
Translated from the Spanish and reprinted with permission from the Revista Anales de la Academia de Ciencias de Cuba, [online] Vol. 2, No. 2, 2012. Original available at: http://www.revistaccuba.cu/index.php/acc/article/view/126
Dementia is a syndrome that has great repercussions for quality of life of patients and their families, as well as a high social cost. A [2009] systematic review of research evidence and consensus of expert opinions showed that 36 million people live with dementia worldwide, with 4.6 million new cases every year (similar to the global incidence of nonfatal stroke). The prevalence of dementia in older Cubans is high, with rates ranging from 6.4% to 10.2%, or about 130,000 persons (1.1% of the total population). This number is expected to rise to 260,000 by 2030. The age-standardized annual incidence of dementia is also high: 21 per 1000 population, with 28,750 new cases annually. Dementia is the leading cause of disability among older adults and is the main cause of dependency, financial burden and caregiver stress.
In this review, we highlight the importance of epidemiological research to obtain greater knowledge of the disease, improve health services, promote actions for prevention and early diagnosis, and implement a national strategy to address dementia in the Cuban population, itself now immersed in two processes: accelerated demographic aging and epidemiologic transition.
KEYWORDS Dementia, Alzheimer disease, epidemiology, risk factors, prevention, diagnosis, treatment
INTRODUCTION With 333 million cases worldwide predicted for 2015, type 2 diabetes mellitus presents an important global health challenge. Its rising tide calls for health policies emphasizing prevention at the primary care level, including public education as well as early risk identification and intervention.
OBJECTIVES Estimate risk of developing type 2 diabetes in persons with no known glucose abnormalities, registered in a primary care setting in Pinar del Río city, Cuba, using FINDRISK.
METHODS A descriptive, cross-sectional study applied FINDRISK to 620 persons aged ≥18 years randomly selected from a universe of 1058 patients with no known glucose abnormalities, registered in family-doctor-and-nurse office No. 23 in the Turcios Lima Teaching Polyclinic health area, Pinar del Río city.
RESULTS The study population was predominantly aged ≤45 years (53.5%) and 80.2% was overweight or obese. At least moderate risk of diabetes was found in 74.4% of the sample, and 10.5% was at very high risk, meaning an estimated 120 patients in the sample could be expected to develop type 2 diabetes within the next 10 years.
CONCLUSIONS Type 2 diabetes prevalence can be expected to increase substantially in this population over the next decade. We recommend design and timely implementation of intensive lifestyle change programs to eliminate or slow development of type 2 diabetes in at-risk individuals. We propose following cohorts identified by FINDRISK to assess its prognostic value in the Cuban population.
KEYWORDS Diabetes mellitus, risk factors, risk prediction, prevention, Cuba
INTRODUCTION A population health profile is a cumulative product of socioenvironmental and political factors that create the contexts in which health problems arise, as well as opportunities and barriers to addressing them. Research on context has focused on demonstrating its effects, direct or indirect, on health indicators, but has made few incursions into assessing its role as a mediator of other factors. While individual risk factors for chronic diseases are well known, the same cannot be said for the complex of contextual factors operating at various levels and over the lifespan.
OBJECTIVES Estimate relative influences by contextual versus individual factors as determinants of diabetes type 2 and heart disease.
METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out in populations served by 12 family doctor-and-nurse practices in Havana, in 840 families selected by simple random sampling, 70 per practice. Principal components analysis was used, as well as contextual logistic regression models with a nested model strategy, whose fit was meant to estimate the relative contributions of contextual compared to individual risk factors for diabetes and heart disease. Context was described and analyzed at two levels: that of the family or household and that of the catchment area served by a family doctor-and-nurse practice (geographically defined as a neighborhood).
RESULTS For diabetes, the contextual effect of neighborhood was modified when household effect was removed; that is, the effect of neighborhood was indirect and mediated by household. Individual coefficients were practically invariant; the principal effect of household changed noticeably on removal of individual effects, while age maintained its effect without variation.
For heart disease, the effect of neighborhood was slightly modified when household effect was controlled for. Individual coefficients showed little change. There was an important direct effect of household on risk of heart disease. Age and high blood pressure coefficients hardly varied.
CONCLUSIONS We confirmed interactions between individual and contextual (neighborhood and household) factors, whose effects on individual health are not entirely mediated by individual factors. Research needs to pay more attention to context beyond its direct effect on individual risk factors.
KEYWORDS Risk factors, risk reduction, community, neighborhood, type 2 diabetes mellitus, heart disease, logistic models, Cuba
One of the most common shortcomings in non-communicable disease risk factor surveillance, especially in prevalence studies, is sampling procedures, which can and do compromise accuracy and reliability of derived estimates. Moreover, sampling consumes significant time and resources. Since the early 1990s, risk factor surveys in Cienfuegos province, Cuba have paid particular attention to careful sampling methods. The new survey conducted in 2011 was not only statistically rigorous but introduced an innovative, more efficient method. This article provides a detailed description of the sample design employed to optimize resource use without compromising selection rigor.
KEYWORDS Sampling, descriptive studies, risk factors, non-communicable diseases, hypertension, Cuba
