Excerpted by the author, translated and reprinted with permission from Novedades en Población. No. 7, Jul–Dec 2014;79–92. Original available from: http://www.novpob.uh.cu/index.php/rnp/article/view/219

Cuba’s accelerated trend to lower fertility and consequent contraction of population reproductive capacity have now become concerns for various social and political actors, including, of course, Cuban demographers, who have been sounding the alarm for more than three decades. The most striking characteristic of Cuba’s fertility transition is undoubtedly its abrupt onset, rapidity, and the fact that it took place in the absence of accompanying economic development. Hence the current debate focusing on the roles of the various determinants that led to the transition, and especially of economic factors at different stages, particularly in conditions of heightened population vulnerability during economic crises. This article provides elements to help fill gaps in knowledge of the fertility–development relationship today.

KEYWORDS Fertility, fertility determinants, below replacement fertility, demographic transition, population transition, development, population dynamics, Malthusianism, Cuba